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EUR/USD – Range bound trading in the offering - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at MUFG, note that as the uncertainty over outlook for ECB & Fed policy has increased, the euro continues to remain range bound against the US dollar in the near-term and is fluctuating roughly in line with daily gyrations in global risk sentiment. The range for the coming week is likely to be 1.1050-1.1450 with neutral bias.

Key Quotes

“The market attempted and failed to push EUR/USD above the top of its recent trading range following last week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed signalled that there is an increased likelihood that it could delay raising rates until next year which may help to dampen downside pressure on EUR/USD heading into year end.”

“On the other hand if the Fed was to delay raising rates until next year it would likely be driven by a further significant weakening of economic growth overseas which would likely improve the US dollar’s relative appeal.”

“Uncomfortably low inflation and the less advanced economic recovery in the euro-zone also makes it likely that the ECB will be more responsive to negative external risks. The ECB has already signalled that it has moved closer to easing policy further although there is no immediate need yet to enhance their QE programme.”

“President Draghi has stated that the ECB wants more time to assess the impact of recent developments which have increased downside risks to the outlook for inflation. Building expectations for further ECB easing will remain a weight on the euro.”

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