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AUD/USD struggles to find its way – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac, has assessed the current difficult scenario for the Aussie dollar.

Key Quotes

“Our optimism over AUD/USD following the FOMC did not last long as the pair failed on a probe towards 0.7300. Asian currencies attempted to rise, only to be rejected, keeping AUD on edge, with the China PMI sealing the week for the bears”.

“Under 0.70 however our short term models suggest fair value is some way higher, backed by commodity prices which are mostly well above recent lows”.

“Markets are also not enthusiastic about the chances of another RBA rate cut, placing only a 40% probability by year-end despite all the gloomy headlines”.

“Chatter about possible policy announcements over China’s Oct 1-7 holidays could also help AUD/USD stabilize short term, though a marginal new low since 2009 (say 0.6850) would hardly be a shock”.

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