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Norges Bank to cut rates, NOK seen stronger in 12-m – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at Danske Bank, the Norges Bank could cut its benchmark rates by 25 bp at its meeting tomorrow, while NOK is expected to pick up pace by end 2016.

Key Quotes

“We expect a 25bp rate cut at the 24 September meeting based on (1) the deteriorating domestic growth outlook, (2) a higher tail risk of the Norwegian economy falling over a cliff as a result of the re-collapse in the oil price and, finally, (3) lower global rates on global growth concerns”.

“From most fundamental perspectives the NOK is very cheap, which, together with stretched speculative positioning should become a NOK positive when the business cycle turns, Norges Bank has finished cutting rates and the oil price moves higher on improved global growth and lower global supply. Also, we expect ECB QE to remain a EUR negative – also on a 12M horizon, as we expect the ECB to prolong the QE programme post September 2016”.

“We forecast EUR/NOK at 9.40 in 1M, 9.40 in 3M, 9.25 in 6M and 8.80 in 12M”.

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