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Bond market inflation gauge below Sep 2012 levels

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bond market inflation gauge in the US today trades below the levels seen in September 2012, when the Federal Reserve had increased its QE program citing lower inflationary pressure.

The QE program initiated back then, ended in 2014 and here we are, few hours short from a possible interest rate hike by the Fed. The gap between yields on five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and equivalent nominal debt, known as the break-even rate, is at almost its lowest level this year.

The difference between the TIPS and the nominal debt represents the future inflation rate, which currently stands at 1.2%, compared to 1.9% in September 2012.

So it remains to be seen whether the Fed ignores the lower future inflation gauge and go ahead with a rate hike or delays the same citing lower inflation.

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