GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND JANUARY INFLATION NUMBERS IN FOCUS
GDP AND INFLATION IN FOCUS
During the upcoming trading week, the Japanese economy and the eurozone trading block release key Gross Domestic Product numbers for the fourth fiscal quarter. Inflation is also heavily in focus as the Swiss, UK, German and United States economies release key Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index inflation figures for the month of January.
The United Kingdom and the United States also release key Retail Sales data this week, whilst we see Industrial Production figures from the Japanese economy and January Employment and Unemployment numbers from the Australian economy.
Monday 12th February, Swiss CPI Inflation
Switzerland's monthly and annual Consumer Price Index is released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The figure is the nation's main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Franc, where each Franc buys fewer goods and services.
The USDCHF pair remains bullish whilst trading above the 0.9340 level, further upside towards 0.9450 and 0.9540 seems likely.
A decline below the 0.9340 level for the USDCHF pair, should support further downside selling towards the 0.9280 and 0.9160 levels.
Tuesday 13th February, UK CPI Inflation
The United Kingdom economy releases key CPI inflation numbers for the first month of 2018 on Tuesday, at a time when the Bank of England are starting to raise interest rates form record low-levels. Most economists expect that the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index will rise 0.4 percent during the month of January, whilst the year-on-year Consumer Price Index is expected to expand at a rate of 3.0 percent.
The GBPUSD pair is expected to decline further whilst trading below the 1.3770 level, downside targets remain 1.3558 and 1.3300.
Should the GBPUSD pair remain above the 1.3770 level, further upside towards 1.3892 and 1.4000 seems possible.
Wednesday 14th February, U.S Retail Sales
U.S Retail Sales are measured by the total number of receipts from U.S retail stores and is provided by the U.S Census Bureau. Consumer spending is tightly linked with the general health of the American economy.
Due to seasonality, it is not unusual for the figure to be positive one month and subsequently revised as negative, the following month. The headline figures can impact the value of the U.S dollar index, primarily due to the importance of consumer spending in the overall U.S economy.
Thursday 15th February, AUS Unemployment Rate
The Australian Unemployment Rate, release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The figure has a significant impact on the value of the Australian dollar, because of the overall importance of employment for the Australian economy.
The AUDUSD pair remains bearish while trading below the 0.8000 level, further downside towards 0.7830 and 0.7715 seems possible.
A sustained move above the 0.8000 level should prompt further AUDUSD buying towards the 0.8070 and 0.8150 levels.
Friday 16th February, U.S Consumer Sentiment
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released by the University of Michigan and is a survey of U.S consumer confidence and economic activity. The Consumer Sentiment Index is an indication of whether U.S consumers are currently willing to spend money and impacts the overall value of the U.S dollar index due to the importance of consumer spending to the American economy.
The U.S dollar index remains bullish while trading above the 0.9000 level, key upside targets are found at 0.9150 and 0.9220.
Should the U.S dollar index start to trade below the 0.9000 level, further losses towards 0.8930 and 0.8890 seem possible.